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In most seasons
Youth Jordan Wilkins Jersey , a team sitting at 2-5 going into Week 8 of the NFL season knows their season is over. The team knows it. The fans know it. Everyone knows it. For the Colts, this is not like most seasons. As fellow Stampede Blue writer Chris Blystone pointed out in the AFC South Roundup, this division is kind of terrible. Like really, really bad. The Jaguars are a shell of the team that almost went to the Super Bowl last season. They face a tough upcoming 4-game stretch where they could realistically go 1-3, which leaves them at 4-7 on the season.The Titans are in a free fall having lost their last three games. Their losing streak could continue into a crushing seven game losing streak, putting them at 3-8.The Texans cannot protect their QB to save themselves. They have given up 26 sacks on the season, tied for 29th in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is a special player when he’s got time but time is the one thing they aren’t giving him. Their next four games are not as difficult as the other two teams but they could still end up 2-2 in it, which leaves them at 6-5.So why should Colts fans, with a 2-5 team, be hopeful that somehow they can turn things around and win the AFC South? Well... to be blunt, the team has already started turning things around.First, let’s look at the offensive side of the ball. This past game against Buffalo was the second straight week the offensive line played with the same group of players including LT Anthony Castanzo. In the past two games, Luck was sacked zero times and only hit six times. When was the last time Colts QB had consecutive games without getting sacked? For the curious ones, it happened only once since Andrew Luck was drafted, in Weeks 15-16 of 2016. To this point in the season, the Colts have given up only 10 sacks through 7 games or 1.43 sacks per game. That is good for 5th best in the NFL. If they continue at this pace, Luck will take a total of 23 sacks on the season, which would be the least amount of sacks he’s ever taken in a full season.Chris Ballard has been about as honest and open as a GM can be. He’s said from the start that his focus was to build the interior of the lines first and work out from there. While some did not appreciate the selection of Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith early in the draft, they certainly can’t complain about the results. Yes, we know they will still complain but still.Not only is Luck being protected, the Colts actually have a running game. You can see that Marlon Mack is making the right decisions and is a better than average starting RB. He’s playing well and defenses must respect the running game. This, of course, allows for a more effective play-action game, which gives Luck more time to throw. The Colts offense is scoring an average of 27.0 point per game. The next closest team in the AFC South? The Texans with 22.1 points per game. The Jaguars and Titans score 16.6 and 15.1 points per game, respectively. Over the past four games, the Colts are averaging 32.3 point per game while the Texans, Jags and Titans are averaging 24.0, 14.8 and 14.3, respectively. The Colts offense is trending up and should only improve. Second, this defense is much better than anyone anticipated. Darius Leonard looks more and more like a slam dunk pick by Ballard. He’s leading the NFL in tackles despite missing a game. The Colts are currently 4th in the NFL in sacks despite rarely blitzing. They are 6th in interceptions, 8th in forced fumbles and 5th in fumbles recovered. Did anyone expect them to be in the top 10 in each of those categories?They are certainly young and have mental lapses. The touchdown given up in the New York Jets game is a perfect example of this. However, as they continue to gain experience, they will continue to get better. They are fast and entertaining. They force turnovers and give Andrew Luck extra opportunities. The Colts have an 11th ranked turnover differential with a +2. This differential should actually be higher, at least a +5, since four of Luck’s eight interceptions were the result of deflected passes. On three of those four deflected interceptions
White Eric Ebron Jersey , the ball was actually in the hands of a Colts receiver but they batted it into the air allowing the opposing defenders an opportunity to capitalize.When you look at the NFL as a whole, the Colts are far and away the best 2-5 team. That’s not saying much but, realistically, this team could be 5-2. They were driving for a game winning TD in Week 1 against Cincinnati before a fumble. In Week 3, Nelson Agholor should’ve been called out of bounds to give the Eagles 4 and 2 in FG range. The Colts should have been trying to kick a game winning FG instead of trying to score a TD on fourth down with less than two minutes remaining. Against Houston in Week 4, Jadeveon Clowney should have never had the opportunity for their initial TD and the Colts should have converted on third down prior to the Adam Vinatieri FG where the pass hit Marcus Johnson in the numbers or Chester Rogers dropped the ball on 4th down, both in overtime. The Colts were within one score in the fourth quarter against New England on the road on a Thursday night after an emotional overtime divisional loss. That’s a tough situation to win in regardless but the team was competitive. That’s certainly better than Colts fans have seen in the past. The Colts deserved to lose against the Jets, plain and simple. They didn’t play well. However, the Colts are a 2-5 because they had a string of bad breaks. It is what it is.At this point in the season, most teams are dealing with injuries. However, it appears the Colts are beginning to get healthier. Anthony Castanzo, who missed the first 6 weeks of the season, makes such a huge difference on the offensive line. TY Hilton, who missed the two losses to New England and the Jets is now back, and he forces defenses to be aware of him at all times. Hilton opens up opportunities for other WRs to excel. Jack Doyle was a limited participant in practice this week after missing significant time. Doyle gives Reich another wrinkle in his game plan as the tight end is an incredibly versatile player.Malik Hooker looks fully recovered from his ACL injury, although missed practice today with an unrelated hip injury. Denico Autry and Clayton Geathers practiced for the first time in weeks. Tyquan Lewis, which everyone within the Colts organization appears very high on, practiced for the first time since being placed on IR. The Colts have three weeks to place him to the active roster or else he reverts back to IR. If Lewis is as good as advertised, Chris Ballard may have made one of the better groups of second round picks in NFL draft history.Another reason why there’s a chance the Colts could win the AFC South? Their schedule. The Colts toughest games are behind them. Road games at the Super Bowl Champion Eagles and Super Bowl Runner-Up Patriots are in the rear-view mirror. Five of their first eight games were on the road. After this weekend, their remaining road games are all division games, and while those are never easy, they aren’t the Patriots or Eagles either. According to TeamRankings.com, the Colts remaining strength of schedule is the easiest in the NFL. They play this weekend in Oakland (1-5), which should be a win as it appears Jon Gruden is submarining the Raiders at an unprecedented rate. Thank goodness Gruden didn’t get hired in Indianapolis. The Colts have the bye week to get healthy and recuperate after a cross-country trip. Then they have three home games against teams that are struggling, Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4), Tennessee Titans (3-4) and Miami Dolphins (4-4). If the Colts continue to improve, they could legitimately win all of their next four games, putting them at 6-5. That would leave them tied with the Texans at the top of the division with a game against the Texans remaining. Looking at the final five games, the Colts have two divisional road games against the Jaguars (3-4) and Houston Texans (5-3), followed by two home games against a struggling Dallas Cowboys (3-4) and what’s left of the flash sale New York Giants (1-6). The Colts end the season on the road against the Titans (3-4). The Colts only have two games against teams with winning records remaining on their schedule, Miami and Houston. That’s not particularly intimidating.In all of their remaining games the Colts should either be favored or only a slight underdog.They could legitimately win each of their final nine games. They will likely have a hiccup here or there but even winning seven of the final nine would put the team at 9-7 on the season. That should put them squarely in the mix to win the AFC South. Given the accelerated growth of this team and the consistency of the coaching staff, the Colts are in a very good position to go on a legitimate run. So yes, we’re saying there’s a chance for the Colts to win the division.Film Room: Margus Hunt — Breakout player or product of a great scheme? The 2018 Indianapolis Colts are a much different team than any of us could have expected through three games. The defense is playing at a very high level led by the dominant play of rookie second round pick Darius Leonard. While Leonard has been racking up the stats and very high praise league wide, there is another defensive player who deserves a ton of credit for the quick turnaround. That player is none other than defensive lineman Margus Hunt — just like we all expected.Hunt entered the preseason presumably on the Colts’ roster bubble. The team is in the middle of a rebuild and is taking a slow, youth first approach to building up the roster. This was evident by the surprising release of defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins prior to the offseason. Many assumed that other veteran players
White Denico Autry Jersey , such as Hunt who turned 31 back in July, would also be on the way out. Hunt then defied the odds in the preseason, beating out fan favorite John Simon for a roster spot. Defensive coordinator pointed out Hunt as one of the players who really stood out in July/ August and thought he really excelled in the new scheme Eberflus was installing. That trust in Hunt to not only keep him on the roster but to give him significant snaps has resulted in 8 tackles for a loss and 3 sacks in just three games this season.So what is the reason for this breakout? Is Hunt really this good or is Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus and his 4-3 scheme setting up Hunt for big plays? Well lets look to the film and see what is really the reason behind Margus Hunt’s dominant play.Skill Set and Development:One of the main factors to Hunt’s breakout is the refinement of his near elite traits that he’s had since entering the NFL. Hunt is a massive 6’8” 298 pound player with insane strength and speed for man his size. At his combine back in 2013, Hunt led all defensive lineman with an insane 4.60 40 yard dash (the same 40 time that Eric Ebron ran) and 38 reps on the bench press (3 more reps than Quenton Nelson). If you need anymore proof that this man is a pure athlete, here’s a reminder that he won two Gold Medals in the shot put and discus events at the 2006 World Junior Championships. So yeah, this guy has the traits to be a star.But does it translate on the field? In years past, not so much, but Hunt has clearly been working on his game this offseason. Lets look at our first clip here against the Eagles. Hunt is lined up over one of the best centers in football in Jason Kelce. After a really quick jump out of his stance, Hunt’s strength is able to throw Kelce on his back. If this play were not a quick hitter, we are looking at another sack for Hunt. This kind of strength is unheard of as not many players have the ability to effortlessly throw a player of Kelce’s caliber on his back.Well, okay that last play was impressive but it didn’t translate to anything statistically. Lets look at a play where he is able to make a play on the ball carrier. Here Hunt is being double teamed by center Jason Kelce (#62) and guard Stefen Wisniewski (#61). Notice how Hunt is able to strafe down the line, through the double team, and still make the play. His strength and athleticism to be able to fight through those two blocks and still put himself in the right position to make a play is remarkable. Again this is a play that very few players can make yet Hunt has the skill set to come all the way across the line and make the tackle.So it’s easy to establish how strong of a player Hunt is on tape. But what about his explosion and quickness? Oh yeah he has that too. Watch this clip here against Washington Redskins guard Shawn Lauvao (#77). Right off the snap, Hunt explodes out of his stance and gets inside position on Lauvao. Hunt is then able to quickly turn the corner inside and beat Lauvao for the sack. Even though this play was negated due to an offsides call on Kemoko Turay, it shows the strides that Hunt has taken in the offseason as a pass rusher. He had the strength before the year but adding quickness and explosion out of his stance is making him really hard to block one on one for interior offensive lineman.This last clip here shows all of his traits in one. First he has the strength to just disregard Lauvao and toss him aside. He then shows off his athletic ability to strafe down the line in a zone run and tackle running back Adrian Peterson for a loss. Again, for a player who is 6’8” to be able to crash down the line like this and make this play is quite insane. Hunt’s traits and athletic ability are up there with the best defensive lineman in all of football. Scheme Fit:So we’ve not only established that Margus Hunt has the traits to be a good player in the NFL, but he possesses the traits to be a star player in this league. So the main question that naturally comes to mind then is why has it taken so long for this breakout to happen? Well that is where Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus comes in. Eberflus came from coaching the Dallas Cowboys’ linebackers last year and brings an aggressive, stunt heavy 4-3 defense to the Colts. This scheme perfectly fits Hunt’s strengths as it asks him to primarily shoot gaps and disrupt rather than being an all around playmaker.Lets go to the film here. Now this first play is nothing flashy but Hunt accomplishes everything he is supposed to here. Hunt is yet again matched up with Stefen Wisniewski (#62) and is just shooting the gap here. When the outside zone comes Hunt’s way, the running back has no choice but to cut back inside as Hunt walked Wisniewski into the backfield and right in front of the running back. Hunt effectively forces the play back inside where Anthony Walker is waiting to make the tackle. This play isn’t flashy by any means but it contributes to an overall defensive effort and accomplishes what Matt Eberflus wants from his defensive lineman. Here is another example of Hunt shooting the gap and disrupting the play. Hunt shoots the A gap between the guard and center and is able to get good penetration across the line. As a result, running back Corey Clement is forced to find the cut back lane which happens to be right where a host of defenders are waiting for him for a minimal gain. This play is again attributed to Hunt’s fit in Eberflus’ scheme as he is asked to just get up field and force the ball carrier back to where the other defenders are. Again not a flashy play but it helps limit the other offense and makes things easier on the linebackers.Now these last few plays have not been flashy at all but they have shown glimpses of what Eberflus clearly liked about Hunt in the offseason. Now what happens when Hunt’s athleticism and newfound ability to time up snap counts is put into this gap shooting scheme. The potential for big tackles for a loss. Watch this play here as Hunt is again just tasked with shooting the A gap between the guard and center. Hunt times up the snap perfectly and is able to blow past the center for the huge tackle for a loss. Now this is a busted play for the Eagles but without Hunt getting back there so quickly, QB Carson Wentz could have gotten rid of the ball and saved 8 yards. This play right here is what happens when pure talent meets a perfect scheme fit.Here is another example of Hunt shooting the A gap resulting in a big tackle for a loss. The Redskins here are going for a quick draw to running back Chris Thompson, a play that typically leads to a lot of success for them. Hunt, just doing his assignment here, blows the play up by exploding past guard Brandon Scherff and center Chase Roullier. Hunt isn’t overwhelming any blockers in these last two snaps or even showing off his coveted strength, but he is using his natural traits to excel in his role in a designed defense. As a result, he is leading the NFL in tackles for a loss three games into the season. Now shooting gaps isn’t the only way that Margus Hunt is being utilized in Matt Eberflus’ scheme. In this defense, there is a lot of stunting in the defensive line particularly on passing downs. Hunt is a near perfect fit for this as well as he has the big frame to eat up lineman so others can stunt around him and the athleticism to efficiently twist around others who are eating up blocks. On this play here, Hunt is able to draw center Jason Kelce (#62) to far out of position to set up Jabaal Sheard on the inside stunt. Kelce tries to recover but whiffs big time as Sheard has an open lane to the quarterback. Although this play didn’t result in a sack, this near impact play is a direct result of Margus Hunt eating up blocks inside. Last play here but this is the big impact play that we’ve also seen from Hunt on these stunt plays. His athleticism allows him to quickly get around the edge to engage right tackle Lane Johnson on the twist. Despite not beating Johnson, Hunt is able to get enough of a push to get his arms on the quarterback. Hunt makes an excellent play here by reaching around Johnson to knock the ball away from Carson Wentz. All around a great drawn up play by Matt Eberflus on 3rd and long and a great impact play by Hunt.Bonus Clip: Get Your Hands UpI just really wanted to add this play to show how far Hunt has come from his early days in the NFL. Hunt entered the NFL as a raw 25 year old who didn’t have much football experience under his belt. His growth in 6 years is shown here in this savvy veteran move. Unable to get up field against his blocker, Hunt doesn’t desperately overrun the play like many young players would. Instead Hunt sits back, keeps contain on Carson Wentz and gets his hands into the passing lane. Again not the flashiest play but a very savvy play that shows how much Hunt has grown in his time in the NFL.Analysis:Overall I am very impressed with the strides Margus Hunt has taken as a player. He is no longer a raw draft bust but rather an effective role player who has the traits to impact the game. He really has grown in the mental aspect of his game from his early years as instead of trying to do too much he is just doing his role at a high level and letting the plays come to him.Now I will say that he is not the superstar that his stats would indicate. He does have some work to do before he reaches that status such as developing more counters and using his hands more when rushing the passer but this is still the best Margus Hunt has played in his six year career. Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus raved about Margus Hunt this offseason and I can see why. Hunt is the perfect fit in his gap shooting, stunt heavy system and the stats that Hunt is putting up are a major indicator of that. When a great scheme fit meets pure talent and opportunity, you get what could be a career year for the Estonian giant Margus Hunt.